New Scenario Report Provides Country Level Assessment Of Global Biofuel Potential

A new scientific paper offers a comprehensive, country-based, bottom-up assessment of the land-based global biofuel (bioethanol and biodiesel) potential. Written by Ecofys as a resource data for Shell's future energy scenarios, the study takes into account a range of scenarios with varying yield gradients, land-use change and technology development. Going beyond many previous analyses, it contains an analysis of the potential for food crop based biofuels as well as lignocellulosic-sourced biofuels at country level.

The study finds a global biofuel supply potential of 40-190 exajoules (EJ) in 2070, depending on the development of land-use, productivity and technology mix. Over three quarters of this potential come from energy crops: up to 70% could come from food type bioenergy crops and at least 10% from lignocellulosic bioenergy crops. The remaining quarter would be from agricultural and forestry residues. For comparison, current total global energy use (fuel, heat and electricity) stands at 365 EJ final energy, of which 100 EJ was used to supply liquid fuel for all forms of transport.

Looking at the different potentials per country, the research finds countries such as Brazil or Russia could become net bioenergy exporters in the second half of the century, while others, such as India or Nigeria, may become net importers.

Find additional insights at Shell's future energy scenarios.

Find the full scientific paper also online at Elsevier.